Assembly Elections in April 2026 may witness a revival of the India Block
Share, Comment, Like, and Subscribe to support Independent Journalism!
By Syed Ali Mujtaba, Edited by Adam Rizvi, The India Observer (TIO): The assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry are scheduled for April 9, 23, and 29. Tamil Nadu and West Bengal will have polls in two phases, on April 23 and 29, respectively. There will be single-phase voting on April 9 for Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry.
There are 824 seats spread across 5 regions that will go to the polls in April 2026. Tamil Nadu has 234 seats, West Bengal 294 seats, Kerala 140 seats, Assam 126 seats, and Puducherry 30 seats. The results for the four states and one union territory will be declared on May 4, 2026.
Also Read: Dravadian homeland demolition project is facilitating DMK’s victory in Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu- The ruling DMK alliance is projected to win the upcoming Assembly elections. The pollsters say that the DMK-led alliance will secure 181-189 seats. It will have a 40.1 per cent vote share in the state. The DMK’s biggest advantage is that the opposition is split between the NDA and the newly formed political party, the TVK.
The number two position goes to the AIADMK-led NDA, which is projected to win between 38 and 42 seats. The AIADMK alliance will get 29% of the vote share in the state.
Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is making its political debut in the state, may secure 8-10 seats with a 23.9% of vote share. The new party is attracting a good share of votes, especially from young voters, first-time voters, and those unhappy with the ruling government.
Also Read: Four women among 10 Muslim change-makers in Tamil Nadu
The poll analysis has indicated that the alliance between the AIADMK and the BJP has contributed to a consolidation of 6 percent Muslims votes against the AIADMK-led front. The AIADMK is struggling internally, and several infightings are affecting its performance in the state.
Puducherry – The Union Territory of Puducherry is going to poll on April 9, 2026. Puducherry has a 33-member legislative assembly, which includes 30 elected seats, where three members are nominated by the Central government. Here, whichever party or alliance can win 16 seats can form the government.
The assembly election in Puducherry is witnessing a contest between the ruling All India NR Congress (AINRC) plus the BJP and the Congress led the DMK alliance.
Also Read: AIADMK will remain Custodian of Muslims in Tamil Nadu: says Palaniswami
The AINRC-BJP alliance is riding on the popularity of Chief Minister N Rangasamy, who is eyeing a second consecutive term in office. There are also perceived benefits of the double-engine government in the Union Territory.
The Congress is contesting on 16 seats, and the DMK on 14 seats. Even though the DMK is set to sweep the polls in adjoining Tamil Nadu, the Congress-DMK alliance appears to be struggling to give a competitive fight. The pollsters predict that the ruling NDA can win 14–17 seats in the southern Union Territory.
Kerala – The elections to the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly will be held in a single phase on April 9. The Kerala Assembly elections will primarily witness a contest between the incumbent LDF and the UDF, while the BJP-led NDA is aiming to improve its prospects in the Assembly polls.
Also Read: India defeats hate, Modi left at mercy of Muslim-friendly allies
The pollsters have indicated that no single alliance is likely to secure a clear majority. The Congress-led UDF may secure 67-73 seats. The Communist led LDF is expected to win around 62-68 seats. This could be a close call, and any formation to form the government. The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 1 to 2 seats. Others are likely to win 0-3 seats.
As far as vote share is concerned, Congress-led UDF may receive 42% of the vote share, and the LDF is likely to get 39% of the vote share. The BJP-led NDA is likely to get 15% of the vote share.
West Bengal – The West Bengal Assembly Election will be held on 23 and 29 April 2026. The pollsters predict a tight contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP-led alliance.
Also Read: Report Card – Violence against Muslims in 2025
The pollster estimates that the TMC could win between 140 and 160 seats. The BJP-led alliance is projected to secure between 130 and 150 seats. Other parties and independent candidates are expected to win around 8 to 10 seats.
The Trinamool Congress, in terms of vote share, is projected to receive between 43 and 45 percent, while the BJP-led alliance could secure around 41 to 43 percent. Other parties are expected to account for roughly 13 to 15 percent. The narrow gap of two percent underlines how closely the assembly election is poised in West Bengal.
Assam- The pollsters have predicted a clear victory for the BJP in the Assembly elections in Assam. The election is slated for April 9, 2026, for the 126-members of the assembly.
Also Read: “Nobody is Targeting Me” USTM Chancellor Gives Clean Chit to Assam CM
The BJP alliance is likely to get 87-97 seats in Assam, and the Congress alliance may get around 26-36 seats.
The BJP alliance will get 44 per cent of the vote share, and the Congress-led alliance will get 36.7 per cent of the votes.
The pollsters say Chief Minister Himanta Biswas Sarma has 48 per cent of support and is expected to be the Chief Minister for the third consecutive time. The Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi has 47 per cent support in Assam.
Also Read: Congress takes cudgels with Assam CM Himanta Biswas
The poll predictions, if true, can give a push to the India Block in the Lok Sabha Elections due in 2029.
Also Read more from this Author: ‘We are Living in a mediatized Society,’ says noted journalist Syed Ali Mujtaba
Curated by Humra Kidwai
