HAS SECOND CORONA WAVE REACHED ITS PEAK?

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By Susheel Silvano, Edited By Adam Rizvi, TIO: As  predicted by scientists of the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur , the Second Tsunami of Covid-19 seems to have reached its peak and the number of new cases has fallen down for the last few days. It happened earlier too but the cases again went in an upward curve, flattering to deceive.

India, in the last 24 hours, recorded 2,81,386 new Covid-19 cases, the Union Health Ministry update showed on Monday ( May 17). With this, the total tally reached 24,965,463. The case count has fallen below the 3-lakh mark for the first time in 25 days. However, 4,106 people succumbed to the disease in the said period, which pushed up the death toll to 274,390. The number of active cases have down to 3,516,997 from Sunday’s 3,618,458 — the biggest single-day drop ever.

Not yet the end

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Although there are hopeful signs, an end to the second wave appears a long distance away. It had taken five months for the cases to come down from a high of 98,000 a day during the first wave, to about 10,000 a day. This time, India would be starting at a much higher peak. That would mean that the downward journey of the second wave could be that much longer.

Also, unlike the first wave, the decline has not commenced immediately after reaching the peak. The daily count is moving up and down, so that we are not even sure whether cases in India have reached a peak. If the curve in Maharashtra, which has closely mirrored that of India for most of this pandemic, is any indication, there is likely to be a prolonged plateau, and the slide down could be slow and not steady. That would mean that India could be reporting a very large number of cases, two to three lakhs a day, for several weeks to come.

Meanwhile, Arti Ahuja, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Health said that states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Jharkhand have started to show a narrow decline in daily Covid-19 cases recently.

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In a media briefing, Ahuja said, “Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Jharkhand are the states/UTs where cases were increasing earlier but are now plateauing gradually”.

However, states like Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland have began to show an increase in trend in daily coronavirus cases, Ahuja added.

Currently, 12 states and union territories have more than one lakh active cases. These include: Maharashtra (641,281); Karnataka ( 517,095); Kerala (391,251), Uttar Pradesh ( 259.844); Rajasthan ( 198,101), Andhra Pradesh (182,329); Gujarat (147,525); Tamil Nadu (131,468); Chhattisgarh (131,245); West Bengal (122,774); Haryana (115,842), and Bihar (115,152).

According to the union health ministry, 24 states account for more than 15% positivity rate, nine states have a positivity rate between 5% and 15%. On the other hand, only three states have a positivity rate of less than 5% between 1 and 7 May

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She further informed about the vaccination drive in the country. She said 11.81 lakh people have been given the first dose of Covid-19 vaccines in the age group of 18-44 years to date. Whereas cumulatively, 16.50 crore doses have been administered across all categories,

she added, According to her, more than 70% of deaths are due to comorbidities.

Compiled & Curated By Humra Kidwai

 

Sushil Silvano

Sushil Silvano

Sushil Silvano, our contributing editor, is a celebrated veteran Journalist and Author from Lucknow, currently living in Mumbai, India.

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