Nature and Direction of the Iran War
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By Syed Ali Mujtaba, Edited By Adam Rizvi, The India Observer (TIO): The outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain. This is because the purpose of the war is hazy and its objectives are undefined. So a blind navigation is done here to search for the nature and direction of the Iran war.
Let’s start with the purpose of the war as defined by the US. According to the US, since Iran remains defiant to its whims and fancies, its non-compliance can be addressed only by destroying its might and through regime change.
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So the prime purpose of the war is the destruction of Iran. This destruction can be achieved by eliminating its military strength and also its nuclear programme. The second objective of the war is to do a regime change to enslave the Persian nation forever. The other objective is to fragment Iran into ethnic enclaves so that it can be permanently tamed into submission.
Before going into the merits of the success or failure of the current War, let’s do a background check to start our discussion. Iran witnessed the Islamic Revolution in 1979 that saw the overthrow of the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, considered to be a US stooge. The new Islamic regime thereafter adopted a fiercely independent policy opposing US- led Western hegemonic designs to control the world. The US-UK-Europe and Israel, along with their Arab partners, have subjected immense hardships by imposing economic sanctions. Iran was accused of indulging in acts of terrorism and building weapons of mass destruction. The US has built such narratives in the past to justify its wars against Muslim countries.
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The current war against Iran is drummed up as a means to dismantle its nuclear programme to save the world from mass destruction. It was not long ago when the Western media shouted from the rooftops that Iraq possessed nuclear weapons, and its WMD had to be eliminated for the protection of mankind. The entire world was fooled by Colonel Powell’s theatrics in the United Nations.
Now the US is building a similar case against Iran without any substantial evidence, and again it’s turning out to be mere hearsay. The foreign minister of Oman, who was one of the main mediators in the talks between the USA and Iran on the nuclear issue, has said that the deal was within the reach of the USA, but Israel has duped the USA and dragged it into the war.
To set the record straight on the nuclear issue, it was on July 14, 2015, after years of extensive diplomacy, Iran and the P5 countries plus Germany concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program would remain exclusively peaceful. The JCPOA placed Iran’s nuclear activities under strict and continuous scrutiny by the International Atomic Energy Agency, thereby ending the nuclear risk posed by Iran, a risk that the Persian nation has consistently denied. In return, the economic sanctions on Iran may be lifted.
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Now it’s amply clear that Iran possesses no nuclear weapons. Iran has signed the Nonproliferation Treaty NPT. In comparison, Israel, that possess around 400 nuclear bombs, has refused to sign the NPT. While Iran has never invaded its neighbor, Iraq has committed genocide against its neighbor, Palestine, by invading it several times. So, the first objective of the War to denuclearize Iran is a bluff that the US did to justify the Iraq war under Sadam Hussian.
Commenting on the Iran war, eminent economist and public policy analyst, Jeffrey Sachs, has said, “the attacks on Iran have nothing to do with nuclear threats. Instead, it is an imperial war aimed at sustaining US–Israeli hegemony and controlling the oil reserve in the Middle East. Sachs accused Trump of acting at the behest of Israel, warning that the world is being pushed toward a wider global conflict.
Now, let’s look at the second objective of the Iran war, which is to do regime change. But before that, let’s talk about the US-Iran-Contra deal, a scandal that broke out in the 1980s, which was also for regime change in Nicaragua. Under the US-Iran-Contra deal that took place soon after the Islamic revolution in Iran, the US secretly sold arms to the Islamic regime despite putting an embargo on the Persian nation to secure the release of American hostages in Lebanon.
In other words, the US was funding Iran with guns to become militarily powerful to tame the Israelis. The funds from the sale of the arms to Iran were illegally diverted to the Contra rebels in Nicaragua to do a regime change. The US-Iran-Contra deal was designed to bypass the American Congress. However, the media highlighted this scandal to expose how US foreign policy operates on the global stage.
Now let’s talk about the regime change in Iran. America has undertaken several adventures of changing regimes in countries like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, but has left the battlefield without achieving its objectives. Besides, neither America nor Israel has any proxy groups in Iran that can take over power from the Islamic regime.
The name of Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran, is doing the rounds. The scion of the Pahlavi dynasty has maintained a close relation with the U.S. and the Israel officials and is taught to be a “catalyst” for a transition in Iran, but he is a highly unpopular character in that country.
Besides, America has tried to put up its proxies in Afghanistan by putting Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani at the top, but has miserably failed in its objectives. In a shoot and scoot framework, it hands over power to the Mullahs, called Taliban, who are now ruling Afghanistan.
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The regime change cannot take place in Iran without American soldiers setting foot on Iran’s soil. If this happens, the nature of war will change. For the last 48 years, Iranians have been waiting for a guerrilla war. Many Iranian generals are waiting to don the hat of Libyan guerrilla fighter, Omar- al – Mukhtar to take on the likes of Montgomery and Rommel on Iranian soil.
As the war prolongs, other global actors like Russia, China, and North Korea will certainly throw their hats into the Iran war. The situation will become the same as what Americans are doing to sustain the war in Ukraine. The extra-regional powers may help Iran avoid losing the war.
While America may be preparing for war against Iran only after its Venezuela operation on January 3, 2026, Iran has been preparing for this war since 1979. The most interesting situation to watch will be the scenario where the USA and Israel will be fighting a guerrilla war in Iran.
The view of the Western analysts about the Iran war is that Trump and Netanyahu have entrapped Iran into unconditional submission. Whereas the eastern analysts’ opinions are that Iran has entrapped the US and Israel through this mindless war.
As such, the war in Iran is currently heading towards a US vs Taliban war in Afghanistan. After twenty years of occupation of Afghanistan, the Americans realized that it cannot win the war. There is already a murmur growing in America about whose war the US is fighting for? Certainly, it’s not for the people of America. This shrill voice is becoming louder when questions are raised about why the US should fight Israel’s war.
Someone has rightly said, “It is easy to start a war, but it’s very hard to end it successfully.” It remains to be seen how the Iran war will conclude. The symptoms suggest that America is going see the same end as it saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, or previously in Vietnam and Somalia.
Iran knows well that the US and Israel cannot sustain the guerrilla war. Once the jackboot is put on Iranian soil, the war will prolong, and when the destruction mounts, the US and Israel will look for an exit route.
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This is what Iran is waiting for: something like the Doha rounds of talks to begin. Here, Iran cannot let the US and Israel escape the war without complying with its terms. Iran on the negotiating table will make Israel and the US have a permanent peace settlement where Palestine is recognized as an independent sovereign state, on which Israel will not trespass.
At the regional level, the Iran war will change the picture of West Asia. The current Arab kings who are serving the US interest and are highly unpopular among their subjects may undergo a regime change. So, the Iran war, instead of witnessing a regime change in Iran, may witness a change of regime in the Sunni countries of West Asia.
So far, Iran is undefeated in the War. It has faced the US and Western sanctions for the past 48 years. It has seen the Arab regimes openly siding with the US and Israel to damage the Islamic regime. Now it remains to be seen how Iran can tilt the balance of the War in its favor.
As such, the war has come to an interesting phase. Will the Iran war conclude by finishing America’s hegemonic design, and will the war discipline Israel from doing its genocidal acts? All these are some mind-blowing results. So watch the war till the end, it’s going to be as bloody as murky, and ugly as all wars have been in the past.
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