How the Muslims Demographic strength can be used to get 50+ MLAs in Bihar
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By Syed Ali Mujtaba, Edited By Adam Rizvi, The India Observer, TIO: Introduction – Bihar is politically divided into North and South. North Bihar has approximately 140 assembly constituencies, the South Bihar has 100. The total strength of the Bihar assembly is 243 seats. So, it’s the North voters who decide the election in Bihar. This is where Muslims matter because the majority of the Muslim voters reside in North Bihar.
In the 18 assembly constituencies of the Seemanchal region in north Bihar Muslim population is 40% to 70%. These are Kishanganj 68%, Katihar 44.47%, Araria 42.95% and Purnia is 38.46 %.
Since constituency-wise religious data is available, it is assumed that the Muslim dominated districts have increased Muslim demographic strength in their constituencies. Here is a bird’s-eye view of the demographic strength of Muslims in different districts.
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The data is taken from the 2011 census, so it’s assumed that the decadal increase must have increased the percentage of the Muslim population in 2025. The logical assumption is that the Muslim population in their dominated constituencies will be in proportion to their demographic strength in their respective district.
As a matter of convenience, the 38 districts of Bihar are divided into 5 segments to assess the electoral strength of the Muslims in different constituencies.
Segment 1 – The Muslim population in 18 constituencies is between 40 to 70 percent. These are Kishangang (4 seats), Kathihar (4 seats), Araria ( 5 seats), and Purnia (5 seats). So the total seats in the 4 districts make up 18 assembly constituencies. So these 18 seats are a pocket borough of the Muslims. They have a head start in the electoral game of numbers in Bihar.
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Segment 2 – There are 35 constituencies where the Muslim population is 20 % to 30%. These are in Darbhanga (8 seats), West Champaran (8 seats), East Champaran (12 seats), and Sitamarhi (7 seats). This makes a total of 35 seats where the Muslim population is over 20 %. Muslims can easily win these seats by making a strategic alliance with the friendly parties.
Segment 3 – The Muslim population is 15% to 20% in 41 assembly constituencies in Bihar. These are Madhubani (9 seats), Muzafarpur (9 seats), Siwan (8 seats), Bhagalpur (6 seats), Gopalganj (5 seats), and Supaul (4 seats). The total is 41 seats, where the Muslim population can decide the election results in combination of the friendly caste group.
Segment 4- The Muslim population is 10% to 15% in 62 constituencies of Bihar. These are: Saharsa (4 seats), Begusarai (7 seats), Sheohar (1 seat), Banka (4 seats), Madhepura (3 seats), Jammui (3 seats), Gaya (5 seats), Nawada (4 seats), Saran (8 seats), Begusarai (6 seats), Samastipur (8 seats), Khagaria (3 seats), Rohtas (6 seats). Muslim voters above 10 % can make an electoral difference in the 62 constituencies in 13 districts of Bihar.
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Segment 5 – The Muslim population is 5% to 10% in the 11 districts of Bihar. There are 59 assembly seats under this category: Vaishali (8 seats), Munger (3 seats), Sheikhpura (2 seats), Nalanda (7 seats), Patna (14 seats), Bhojpur (7 seats), Arwal (2 seats), Jehanabad (3 seats), Aurangabad (6 seats), Buxur (4 seats), Kaimur (3 seats).
Muslims can certainly make the opposite candidates lick the dust if they can strategically vote with a purpose in these constituencies.
Conclusion
If we consider the segment-wise demarcation under the 5 segments, that is: 18 constituencies in the first segment, plus 25 seats in segment 2, which has 35 seats, the tally can be 43 seats. Even if 10 seats can be added in the Muslim kitty from the third segment, where there are 41 seats, the Muslim assembly strength is 53. This figure can be arrived at even if the assembly seats in the fifth segment are discounted.
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To achieve the 50 + assembly seats, Muslims should know how to play the electoral game of numbers in the Indian style of democracy. Certainly, Muslims have to get organized, keeping the big picture of 243 assembly seats.
Bihar Muslims have always suffered from chronic electoral underrepresentation. The number of Muslim MLAs in the State Assembly has never crossed 10%, except in 1985 when there were 34 Muslim MLAs in the 324-member legislative assembly of undivided Bihar. In the 2020 Assembly election, there were only 19 Muslim MLAs in the house of 243 members. How much their number may fall or increase will be known only on November 14, 2025, when the vote counting is completed.
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Curated by Humra Kidwai
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